ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 63.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 63.7E, APPROXIMATELY 453
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 221418Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVERHEAD
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (<10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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